Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.org
British General Election
Altrincham and Sale West

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Candidates:
Labour Party:
Jane M. Baugh
Conservative Party:
Graham S. Brady
Liberal Democratic Party:
Christopher Gaskell

Incumbent:
Graham Brady

97 Result:
Jane Baugh
20,84340.3%
Graham Brady
22,34843.2%
Marc Ramsbottom
6,53512.6%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
51,78273.32%

92 Result: (Redistributed)
14,72726.4%
30,34354.5%
10,26118.4%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
55,69778.4%

Demographic Profile:
Age:
< 1619.5%
16-2412.1%
25-3920.8%
40-6528.5%
65 <19.0%

Ethnic Origin:
White97.5%
Black0.5%
Indian/Pakistani1.1%
Other non-white1.0%

Employment:
Full Time63.8%
Part Time16.3%
Self Employed12.9%
Government Schemes0.7%
Unemployed6.4%

Household SEG:
I - Professional13.5%
II - Managerial/Technical40.7%
III - Skilled (non-manual)16.4%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)17.5%
IV - Partly Skilled8.4%
V - Unskilled2.4%

Misc:
Own Residence77.0%
Rent Residence22.0%
Own Car(s)75.5%
Submissions
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29/04/01 JR Email:
This seat contains Manchester's plushest suburbs (and there is some real money in Manchester). Labour did unexpectedly well in last year's elections for the local Trafford Borough Council (once a lone Tory metropolitan council) but they did so largely by leaving this end of the borough well alone. Labour are defending loads of marginals in the Greater Manchester area (both seats in Bury, two of the three in Bolton, Oldham East, Rochdale etc.) and won't have the time or the money to mount a campaign here. Graham Brady, one of the Tories' youngest MPs, has embarked on a lengthy parliamentary career.
03/06/01 Howard Dawber Email:northwestnow@hotmail.com
I hear Labour is doing rather better than expected here in one of only two Tory seats in Greater Manchester. Brady has failed to make enough impression and Jane Baugh is a good candidate - so I would have thought this might be rather closer than suggested . . .

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Last Updated 6 June 2001
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