Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.org
British General Election
Darlington

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Candidates:
Labour Party:
Rt. Hon. Alan Milburn
Conservative Party:
Anthony Richmond
Liberal Democratic Party:
Robert Adamson
Socialist Alliance:
Alan Docherty
Independent:
Kai Andersen

Incumbent:
Rt Hon Alan Milburn

97 Result:
Alan Milburn
29,65861.6%
Peter Scrope
13,63328.3%
Leslie Boxell
3,4837.2%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
48,17373.95%

92 Result: (Redistributed)
26,55648.1%
23,75843.0%
4,5868.3%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
55,25582.6%

Demographic Profile:
Age:
< 1620.5%
16-2412.1%
25-3922.3%
40-6525.7%
65 <19.4%

Ethnic Origin:
White98.4%
Black0.3%
Indian/Pakistani0.8%
Other non-white0.5%

Employment:
Full Time61.6%
Part Time16.8%
Self Employed7.7%
Government Schemes2.7%
Unemployed11.3%

Household SEG:
I - Professional5.3%
II - Managerial/Technical25.0%
III - Skilled (non-manual)14.1%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)29.1%
IV - Partly Skilled16.1%
V - Unskilled6.0%

Misc:
Own Residence69.5%
Rent Residence29.5%
Own Car(s)58.8%
Submissions
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06/05/01 JR Email:
Darlington may well have been the town that sealed Labour's fate in the disastrous 1983 election - ironically by electing a Labour candidate. In a byelection in March 1983, Labour candidate Ossie O'Brien defied expectations of a Tory or SDP win to eke out a 1000 vote majority. This shored up Michael Foot's leadership of the Labour Party. As a Labour Party under the left-wing leadership of Michael Foot was totally unelectable nationally this emboldened Margaret Thatcher to call an immediate election. Needless to say the Tories won a landslide and Ossie O'Brien lost the seat he had held for just six weeks. Labour took Darlington back in 1992 with a new candidate, Alan Milburn. Milburn stormed ahead in 1997 (aided by a stupid Tory campaign that inexplicably labelled him a supporter of the IRA) and now has a safe seat. Milburn has made a good impact in Cabinet as Health Secretary and could be a contender for the party leadership when Tony Blair decides to call it a day.

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Last Updated 7 May 2001
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