Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.org
British General Election
Warwick and Leamington

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Candidates:
Labour Party:
James A. Plaskitt
Conservative Party:
David C. Bannerman
Liberal Democratic Party:
UK Independence Party:
Greville Warwick

Incumbent:
James Plaskitt

97 Result:
James Plaskitt
26,74744.5%
Dudley Smith
23,34938.9%
Nigel Hicks
7,13311.9%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
60,09175.71%

92 Result: (Redistributed)
19,56431.2%
31,02849.5%
10,72917.1%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
62,62480.4%

Demographic Profile:
Age:
< 1618.9%
16-2412.5%
25-3921.1%
40-6528.1%
65 <19.4%

Ethnic Origin:
White93.6%
Black0.6%
Indian/Pakistani5.0%
Other non-white0.8%

Employment:
Full Time64.4%
Part Time16.4%
Self Employed11.3%
Government Schemes1.0%
Unemployed6.9%

Household SEG:
I - Professional10.7%
II - Managerial/Technical36.2%
III - Skilled (non-manual)12.8%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)21.0%
IV - Partly Skilled14.1%
V - Unskilled3.7%

Misc:
Own Residence70.8%
Rent Residence27.5%
Own Car(s)74.3%
Submissions
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19/04/01 mb Email:m.d.banzet@warwick.ac.uk
This is a traditional Tory riding. Leamington Spa was the scene of a "Countryside March" a few months ago, and people here are worried about things like farming, fuel prices, foot and mouth, etc. The New Labour incumbent won by only a small margin in 1997, which tells me that there is a large pool of hard-core Tory voters in the riding which means that any swing needs only to be small. A television (BBC? Channel 4?) feature on Leamington Spa a few months ago in the wake of the Countryside Alliance protests on fox hunting, etc. portrayed the riding as one of the most conservative (small-c) in the country, and most of the people asked by the reporters were disinclined to vote for New Labour. (and depending on the media coverage, maybe cost some points in the polls), which they otherwise could have won

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Last Updated 7 June 2001
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