Election Prediction Project
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British General Election
Mitcham and Morden

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Candidates:
Labour Party:
Siobhain A. McDonagh
Conservative Party:
Harry A.A. Stokes
Liberal Democratic Party:
Nicholas P. Harris
Green Party:
Thomas J. Walsh

Incumbent:
Ms Siobhain McDonagh

97 Result:
Siobhain McDonagh
27,98458.4%
Angela Rumbold
14,24329.7%
Nick Harris
3,6327.6%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
47,94673.33%

92 Result: (Redistributed)
22,05543.1%
23,78946.5%
4,6879.2%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
51,18683.1%

Demographic Profile:
Age:
< 1619.9%
16-2412.9%
25-3925.5%
40-6524.1%
65 <17.5%

Ethnic Origin:
White80.1%
Black9.5%
Indian/Pakistani5.5%
Other non-white4.9%

Employment:
Full Time67.0%
Part Time11.2%
Self Employed9.8%
Government Schemes0.9%
Unemployed11.1%

Household SEG:
I - Professional4.9%
II - Managerial/Technical27.0%
III - Skilled (non-manual)19.5%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)27.6%
IV - Partly Skilled13.8%
V - Unskilled4.3%

Misc:
Own Residence67.7%
Rent Residence31.1%
Own Car(s)63.8%
Submissions
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03/06/01 JR Email:
Mitcham and Morden, situated in the South west London suburbs (some would say Surrey) is a traditional bellwether marginal. However it has a more interesting electoral history than many such seats. For example, in 1979 the incumbent Labour MP, Bruce Douglas-Mann, held off the Tory challenge. Douglas-Mann was a Labour moderate and was one of more than 25 Labour MPs who joined the Social Democratic Party in 1981-82 in protest at the party's leftward drift. Unlike his fellow defectors he felt it was wrong to cross the floor without his constituents' consent, and resigned his seat, triggering a byelection in which he ran as the SDP candidate. Unluckily for him the Falklands war broke out, and amidst a rallying of public opinion around the Thatcher Government the byelection was won by Tory candidate Angela Rumbold with a 4000 majority - the first time for thirty years that a governing party had gained a seat from the opposition in a parliamentary byelection. Rumbold held on comfortably in 1983 and 1987, although her majority was trimmed back in 1992. In 1997 however she was trounced by Labour's Siobhan McDonagh, sister of Labour Party General Secretary Margaret McDonagh. It is generally acknowledged the Tories are doing very badly indeed in suburban London, and this seat should stay Labour by a sizeable margin.
03/06/01 PSR Email:
Labour gained this in 1997 from Tory Dame Angela Rumbold to the surprise of no-one except Dame Angela and to the surprise of very few this time, they will hold it again.
03/06/01 A.S. Email:adma@interlog.com
A normally Laboury sort of place, Dame Angela Rumbold took advantage of Labour disarray to make M&M a personal Tory fortress until electors came to their senses and gave her an electoral drawn-and-quartering in '97. Now, yawn.

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Last Updated 4 June 2001
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