Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.org
British General Election
Hendon

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Candidates:
Labour Party:
Andrew H. Dismore
Conservative Party:
Richard G. Evans
Liberal Democratic Party:
Wayne J. Casey

Incumbent:
Andrew Dismore

97 Result:
Andrew Dismore
24,68349.3%
John Gorst
18,52837.0%
Wayne Casey
5,42710.8%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
50,03665.67%

92 Result: (Redistributed)
18,06833.5%
28,91653.6%
6,28911.7%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
53,91874.3%

Demographic Profile:
Age:
< 1621.1%
16-2413.8%
25-3923.4%
40-6523.9%
65 <17.8%

Ethnic Origin:
White77.9%
Black5.3%
Indian/Pakistani10.5%
Other non-white6.4%

Employment:
Full Time62.5%
Part Time12.0%
Self Employed15.4%
Government Schemes1.0%
Unemployed9.2%

Household SEG:
I - Professional10.3%
II - Managerial/Technical35.1%
III - Skilled (non-manual)18.6%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)19.6%
IV - Partly Skilled8.7%
V - Unskilled3.1%

Misc:
Own Residence64.7%
Rent Residence32.8%
Own Car(s)67.4%
Submissions
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08/05/01 David McKee Email:david@mckee.ndo.co.uk
Labour walked this one in 1997, thanks to Virginia "kamikaze" Bottomley, who was Health Secretary at the time. She had the bright idea of closing down the A&E Department at Edgware General Hospital, so funds could be diverted to primary health care in London. Good idea in principle, but horribly unpopular in practice. Local Tory MPs were apoplectic with rage, but it was no good: the reforms went ahead. Come May 1997, the voters in NW London duly took their revenge. Labour chose to imply that a Labour win would reverse La Bottomley's decision, and this cemented Labour's victory in half a dozen constituencies like Hendon. Once the election was over, Labour ratted on the deal and the closure stood. So what happens now? Labour announced (March 2001) that the Edgware site would be transformed into a community hospital. Subtle, or what? Will the voters be fooled twice? Hendon, Brent North and the two Harrow constituencies will be fascinating to watch as the campaign develops. My gut feeling (4 what it's worth) is that this little lamb will return to the Tory fold.

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Last Updated 12 May 2001
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