Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.org
British General Election
Harrow West

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Candidates:
Labour Party:
Gareth R. Thomas
Conservative Party:
Daniel W. Finkelstein
Liberal Democratic Party:
Christopher D. Noyce

Incumbent:
Gareth R Thomas

97 Result:
Gareth Thomas
21,81141.5%
Bob Hughes
20,57139.2%
Prakash Nandhra
8,12715.5%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
52,50672.92%

92 Result: (Redistributed)
12,33722.5%
30,22755.2%
11,04520.2%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
54,76077.4%

Demographic Profile:
Age:
< 1619.7%
16-2413.2%
25-3922.8%
40-6527.1%
65 <17.2%

Ethnic Origin:
White77.5%
Black3.3%
Indian/Pakistani14.2%
Other non-white5.1%

Employment:
Full Time66.7%
Part Time12.8%
Self Employed12.8%
Government Schemes0.7%
Unemployed6.9%

Household SEG:
I - Professional11.7%
II - Managerial/Technical41.8%
III - Skilled (non-manual)16.7%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)18.4%
IV - Partly Skilled6.8%
V - Unskilled2.8%

Misc:
Own Residence78.4%
Rent Residence20.1%
Own Car(s)74.5%
Submissions
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20/04/01 NG Email:
Before 1997, Labour had never won Harrow West and the very thought that they would seemed quite ridiculous. But won it they did. Since then, its been rather mixed for them with a narrow lead in the 1998 local elections but about eight points adrift of the Tories in 1999 (albeit, comparatively speaking, not a remarkably strong result for the Tories in a marginal). In theory, this should be an easy Tory gain but the electoral evidence of the last few years suggests it will not be straightforward. It will be a tight contest.

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Last Updated 6 June 2001
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