Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.org
British General Election
Chesterfield

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Candidates:
Labour Party:
D.A. Reg Race
Conservative Party:
Simon Hitchcock
Liberal Democratic Party:
Paul Holmes
Socialist Alliance:
Jeannie Robinson

Incumbent:
Rt Hon Tony Benn

97 Result:
Tony Benn
26,10550.8%
Martin Potter
4,7529.2%
Tony Rogers
20,33039.6%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
51,38970.91%

92 Result: (Redistributed)
26,46147.3%
9,47316.9%
20,04735.8%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
55,98176.2%

Demographic Profile:
Age:
< 1618.6%
16-2412.1%
25-3921.6%
40-6527.2%
65 <20.5%

Ethnic Origin:
White98.7%
Black0.5%
Indian/Pakistani0.4%
Other non-white0.4%

Employment:
Full Time61.7%
Part Time17.8%
Self Employed8.6%
Government Schemes1.9%
Unemployed10.0%

Household SEG:
I - Professional4.8%
II - Managerial/Technical24.8%
III - Skilled (non-manual)12.7%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)34.1%
IV - Partly Skilled15.4%
V - Unskilled5.4%

Misc:
Own Residence64.5%
Rent Residence34.4%
Own Car(s)62.6%
Submissions
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18/04/01 NG Email:
This will be a very interesting contest. After years of having his majority slowly eroded, Tony Benn is retiring and it is not quite clear what will happen. Will his successor lose Labour votes or not? The chance are that Benn's successor will certainly not command the same amount of respect and this leaves the way open for a challenger. The Lib Dems are quite strong locally while the Tories seem to be firmly fixed in third place. Only a small swing from Labour would see a narrow Lib Dem victory this time round. It will certainly be one to watch.
27/05/01 A.S. Email:adma@interlog.com
Electorally bizarre. Chesterfield *should* be strong for Labour, even "Old Labour" (cf. Dennis Skinner in neighbouring Bolsover); yet it could never really cotton up to having Old Labour icon Tony Benn thrust upon it in '84--and it "acted out" its rejection with, of all things, an hyperthyroid bubble of Lib Dem support. In fact, in Blair's banner year of 1997, Chesterfield swung *against* Benn and hoisted LD ominously toward the 40% stratosphere. And it gets stranger still; now Benn's been controversially replaced by yet *another* Labour dinosaur, former Wood Green MP Reg Race. (And there's Socialist Labour *and* Socialist Alliance running, as well.) What next, in this citadel of inverted voting patterns? My instincts *should* say Labour again, but they make things so difficult...

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Last Updated 7 June 2001
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