Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.org
British General Election
South West Hertfordshire

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Candidates:
Labour Party:
Graham W. Dale
Conservative Party:
Robert L. Page
Liberal Democratic Party:
Edward Featherstone

Incumbent:
Richard Page

97 Result:
Mark Wilson
15,44127.9%
Richard Page
25,46246.0%
Ann Shaw
12,38122.3%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
55,41177.31%

92 Result: (Redistributed)
10,06217.4%
34,18959.2%
13,03422.6%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
57,74784.2%

Demographic Profile:
Age:
< 1620.0%
16-2412.0%
25-3920.7%
40-6528.8%
65 <18.4%

Ethnic Origin:
White96.6%
Black0.4%
Indian/Pakistani1.9%
Other non-white1.1%

Employment:
Full Time63.9%
Part Time16.0%
Self Employed13.8%
Government Schemes0.5%
Unemployed5.7%

Household SEG:
I - Professional11.1%
II - Managerial/Technical44.6%
III - Skilled (non-manual)13.1%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)17.2%
IV - Partly Skilled9.3%
V - Unskilled3.0%

Misc:
Own Residence73.6%
Rent Residence24.1%
Own Car(s)80.1%
Submissions
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08/05/01 Sean Fear Email:fear_sean@hotmail.com
The Liberal Democrats poll very well here in local elections, but have never translated this into votes at national elections. If the Tories could poll nearly half the vote in 1997, they'll have no difficulty holding it now.
I regard it as highly unlikely that this seat will be anything other than Conservative at the next election. Polls are showing rural and semi-rural seats, such as this, swinging to the Tories, while urban areas are moving leftwards. If Labour couldn't win in 1997, they won't win this time.

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Last Updated 8 May 2001
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© 1999-2001 Milton Chan

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