Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.org
British General Election
Reading East

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Candidates:
Labour Party:
Jane D. Griffiths
Conservative Party:
Barry Tanswell
Liberal Democratic Party:
Thomas Dobrashian
Green Party:
Miriam Kennett
UK Independence Party:
Amy L. Thornton

Incumbent:
Jane Griffiths

97 Result:
Jane Griffiths
21,46142.7%
John Watts
17,66635.2%
Sam Samuel
9,30718.5%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
50,22070.15%

92 Result: (Redistributed)
15,11528.9%
25,69949.1%
10,68420.4%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
52,31274.9%

Demographic Profile:
Age:
< 1619.4%
16-2415.1%
25-3926.0%
40-6524.7%
65 <14.7%

Ethnic Origin:
White90.2%
Black3.1%
Indian/Pakistani4.7%
Other non-white2.0%

Employment:
Full Time68.4%
Part Time13.8%
Self Employed10.1%
Government Schemes0.6%
Unemployed7.1%

Household SEG:
I - Professional11.9%
II - Managerial/Technical36.3%
III - Skilled (non-manual)14.2%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)21.6%
IV - Partly Skilled10.1%
V - Unskilled4.3%

Misc:
Own Residence72.0%
Rent Residence26.4%
Own Car(s)71.4%
Submissions
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11/05/01 J Smith Email:
Labour will be able to pull this one out on election night. The results from the last election plus polling data point to an improved result for Labour. Labour hold.
16/05/01 Ivor Peksa Email:ivor@ivorp.com
This result will be closer than polls suggest. Jane Griffiths, the sitting MP, is not especially popular due to some allegations regarding council expenses, and some ill-judged comments in the past. I would expect a lower turnout to weigh disproportionately against her, particularly in the Woodley wards. A 3.78% swing is required here for the Conservatives to regain this seat, and if they have any improvment on their 1997 results, this is one of their more promising targets.

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Last Updated 17 May 2001
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© 1999-2001 Milton Chan

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