Election Prediction Project
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British General Election
Hemel Hempstead

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Candidates:
Labour Party:
Anthony J. McWalter
Conservative Party:
Paul C. Ivey
Liberal Democratic Party:
Neil Stuart
UK Independence Party:
Barry Newton

Incumbent:
Tony McWalter

97 Result:
Tony McWalter
25,17545.7%
Robert Jones
21,53939.1%
Patricia Lindsley
6,78912.3%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
55,09277.09%

92 Result: (Redistributed)
19,09032.5%
29,24849.9%
9,00515.4%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
58,65682.1%

Demographic Profile:
Age:
< 1620.6%
16-2412.5%
25-3923.9%
40-6526.3%
65 <16.8%

Ethnic Origin:
White96.7%
Black0.5%
Indian/Pakistani1.7%
Other non-white1.1%

Employment:
Full Time66.6%
Part Time15.4%
Self Employed11.1%
Government Schemes0.5%
Unemployed6.4%

Household SEG:
I - Professional7.8%
II - Managerial/Technical34.2%
III - Skilled (non-manual)15.3%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)25.9%
IV - Partly Skilled11.8%
V - Unskilled3.9%

Misc:
Own Residence61.4%
Rent Residence37.1%
Own Car(s)76.7%
Submissions
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10/05/01 J Smith Email:
Labour won this seat last time by a small plurality, but should be able to hold this seat. Polling is on their side, and this election is basically Labour's to loss.
13/05/01 Sean Fear Email:fear_sean@hotmail.com
Too close to call. In June 1999, Conservatives took control of Hertfordshire County Council by winning Labour's fourth safest seat, which is in this constituency, on a high turnout. Hertfordshire is moving rightwards on a long term basis, as upwardly-mobile voters move out of London. Either party could win by a very narrow margin.
21/05/01 LB Email:
It is nonsense to say that Herts is moving to the right; it did in 1979-87 but responded very favourably to Labour in 1997 and Labour may benefit in 2001 from voters who feared that the party could not manage the economy and didn't want to vote for it in 1997. Hemel Hempstead is certainly the easiest New Town seat for the Tories to win back but it won't be a pushover. One local council by-election does not a long-term trend make, as any Liberal Democrat can tell you.
23/05/01 A.S. Email:adma@interlog.com
If the Toryish upwardly-mobile voters are moving out of London, it's to the country or to newer middle-class housing estates--*not* to New Towns. It's the still-substantial vestiges of middle-class countryside that made the Hemel Hempstead seat more marginal than Stevenage or Harlow or Crawley--but face it; those once soft-Thatcherite New Town denizens *adore* New Labour, and are probably less likely to boomerang back than many. If Blair comes back with an equal or greater margin, look to a higher pro-Labour swing in the New Towns...

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Last Updated 27 May 2001
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