Canadian Federal Election
Riding-by-Riding Prediction
Brome-Missisquoi

Current Prediction:
Riding Profile:

Candidates:
Liberal Party:
Denis Paradis
Bloc Québécois:
André Leroux
Canadian Alliance:
Jacque Loyer
Progressive Conservative Party:
Hon. William Heward Grafftey
New Democratic Party:
Jeff Itcush

Incumbent:
Denis Paradis

Previous Result:
42.37%
27.83%
28.09%
1.72%

Surrounding Ridings:


Misc:
Population:
Avg Household Income
Language (Home)
English
French
Submitted Information
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13/10/00 SK Email: stphkawan@hotmail.com
My brother live in this riding. He said the Tories have a high profile candidate. My brother is a PC and he say who is the candidate.This riding have a large english community. I think the tories can win this seat. If the tory candidate doesn't have a high profile this seat go to liberal party.
15/10/00 Bluenoser Email:
Former Cabinet Minister, the Honourable Heward Grafftey will be running for the PCs here. The riding is also handy to the Eastern Townships. So, the Tories will likely pull this one off.
17/10/00 A.S. Email: adma@interlog.com
Grafftey will be, at best, a curiosity. He might have had a chance if there was a reason to coalesce around a single anti-Bloq candidate--but that would've been in '97, not now. And the reason why B-M didn't go PC like its l'Estrie neighbours is because it *already* had an anti-Bloq incumbent: Denis Paradis. Who eked out his initial byelection victory after the '93-elected Bloq (yes, Bloq) member died in a car crash. Given the polls, Grafftey's got little more chance of being returned than Paul Hellyer does.
< 18/10/00 J Smith Email:
This one will be close. The Tories are running a popular former cabinet minister, but are held back by poor poll numbers. If the Tories win only one in Quebec, this is likely to be it.
22/10/00 Pundit Email:
Heward Grafftey is an institution in Quebec. Look for the Tories to win this one back on election night.
25/10/00 K.W. Email:
One must remember that these campaigns are leader-centred, and Joe Clark has as much appeal in Quebec as a pile up on the Jacques Cartier Bridge. There is the Bloc, and there are the Liberals. No one else has a chance. Going up against a single Quebecois party leader, Trudeau, as Leader of the Opposition, Clark got two seats. Now he is sandwiched between two Quebecois party leaders, and he leads the fifth party in the House. That's a big drop. Conversely, the drop from 2 seats to NONE is a short one. Thus endeth the Tory cheerleading. As for Mr. Grafttey - God love him. The sheer guts...this is an admirable fight. Of course, so was the Charge of the Light Brigade. I will be saddened on election night to see such a man, who gave so much to his Party and country in his prime, reduced to single-digits in the riding he once carried easily. Prediction - Liberal (Paradis) 49% Bloc 34% PC (Grafftey) 9% CA 5% NDP 2%
27/10/00 MF Email:
Even with Jean Charest as party leader in 1997, the Conservatives couldn't win Brome-Missisquoi. In addition, at the provincial level, this riding is a Liberal stronghold. In 1998, the Provincial Liberal candidate, Pierre Paradis (Denis' brother) won easily against the PQ's candidate, Raoul Duguay, a very popular signer in Quebec. The score was something like 57% to 31%. I hardly see how Denis Paradis can fail to be re-elected on November 27.
30/10/00 HJ Hickman Email:hhickman@coxhanson.ca
Certainly appears to be one of the best chances for a PC win in Quebec, along with Laval West (M Fortier). As usual, I'll declare my PC bias - I wish other people posting would declare their pre- dispositions, as well.
31/10/00 Adam Daifallah Email:8ad5@qlink.queensu.ca
Anyone who thinks that former MP Heward Grafftey, who has been absent from the political scene for 20+ years, is going to take this riding is dreaming in technicolour. Most voters in Brome Missisquoi probably never knew he was an MP and if they did, they hardly remember him. Look for Liberal Denis Paradis to easily head back to Ottawa given the Tories' national demise.
31/10/00 WR Email:
Too Close. There was an article in the Toronto Star yesterday on Mr. Grafftey stating that he may very well take this riding back. Mr. Paradis was very worried as he should be, stating that Mr. Grafftey cannot win this riding. The man is definately an institution in this riding and many voters that were quoted in the article predicted a PC win here. Never mind the polls, this riding will likely be played out at the local level and this riding is definately the Tories best chance(along with Mr. Bachand in Richmond-Arthabasca)to win a seat in Quebec. Mr. Paradis was deeply worried about a federalist vote split and handing the riding to the Bloc, which could happen. One must remember that Joe Clark only won two seats in Quebec when he became Prime Minister in 1979. However, Mr. Grafftey was one of those two M.P.'s. He will definately be more than a curiosity in this riding and many voters appeared to prefer him over Mr. Paradis in the article. This will be a close race on election night but Mr. Grafftey will show well(probably no worse than second) and that is not good news for Mr. Paradis. If I were Mr. Paradis I would be very worried right now because he is in very deep trouble here. This is just a gut feeling but I am predicting a PC win in this riding. The Gnome from Brome could likely be returned to Ottawa on election day. Unfortunately, this will likely be Joe Clark's only seat in Quebec.
31/10/00 J Reed Email:jm_reed@hotmail.com
Heward Graffty is quite a guy.... he's broke his shoulder a couple of weeks ago and just keeps on going. He may be 72 years old, but he's got more guts than most young candidates I've seen. Chalk one up for the "Gnome from Brome".
01/11/00 TCS Email:
I would side with K.W. and A.S. on this riding. It is federalist--58 per cent no in 1995--and twenty per cent anglophone, and on the new boundaries the Liberals would have won it handily in 1993, let alone 1997. Provincially the riding is a safe PLQ seat. This means the Bloc won't take it, and any drop in PC support is likely to benefit the Liberals. The chances of the PCs taking this riding are slim: the only question is how much their vote will fall without Jean Charest at the helm. For what its worth, Le Devoir (29 Oct) agrees with me: they do not have this riding on the list of 16 ridings that might change hands.
05/11/00 D.S Email:d.sklar@netaxis.qc.ca
Frankly, I think this one will end up going to the PC candidate. I think that there is such a growing hatred of the Liberals in Quebec that people would do anything to get Chretien and his crew out. In addition to this, the PC candidate is well known and very well liked. In a predominantely English speaking riding in the Eastern townships, I don't think the PC will lose this one. On another note, the NDP candidate, Jeff Itcush, is a very intelligent individual. He is a teacher in a Montreal area school and is probably the most honest and decent candidate this riding will ever see. Although I would like him to win, I don't think any NDP candidate stands a chance in Quebec.
23/11/00 Nick Email:goodpoems@canada.com
The hatred for Liberals in this area is huge, but the Bloc candidate is not a promising one. I would expect, however either Leroux or Grafftey to win, with the edge to Grafftey. For three reasons: 1. Le Bloc candidate not popular enough 2. The PC candidate extremely popular 3. This riding hates the Liberals I'd be surprised if the liberals even got 3rd in this riding.

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Last Updated 5 November 2000

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