Canadian Federal Election
Riding-by-Riding Prediction
Bellechasse-Etchemins-Montmagny-L'Islet

Current Prediction:
Riding Profile:

Candidates:
Liberal Party:
Hon Gilbert Normand
Bloc Québécois:
François Langlois
Canadian Alliance:
Jean-Claude Roy
Progressive Conservative Party:
Suzanne Lafond

Incumbent:
Hon Gilbert Normand

Previous Result:
33.47%
33.36%
30.48%
1.45%
1.23%

Surrounding Ridings:


Misc:
Population:
Avg Household Income
Language (Home)
English
French
Submitted Information
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25/10/00 JFB Email:
First, excuse me for my approximative english. In the last election, it was a race between Liberals, Bloc and PC, with a small majority for Liberals. I think the redistribution of PC votes will give an advantage to Liberals.
25/10/00 Brad Nicpon Email:
This is one of the closest ridings I have ever seen... The Lib candidate won by 0.11% of the vote (or 47 votes) over the Bloc! I call this one to go either way at this point in time... it all depends basically on whether or not Chretien screws up in Quebec or not... PC vote increase could split the Lib vote as well allowing Bloc in...
26/10/00 Initial EMAIL: adma@interlog.com
Selkirk-Interlake, Quebec style. Because Pierre Blais, one of the more popular Mulroney/Campbell cabinet ministers, lost by less than 3 points to BQ in '93, this was a major Quebec Tory comeback target in '97. But once again, PC wound up less than 3 points short--only this time, it was behind *both* Bloq *and* Liberal, who beat the Bloq incumbent by only 47 votes! And you're darn tootin' that this is now pretty high on the Bloq target list...
26/10/00 JFB EMAIL: bretonjf@hotmail.com
En 1997, ce fut une course a trois: Bloc, LibTraux et Conservateurs. Je crois qu'une grande partie du vote conservateur reviendra aux Liberaux. Les LibTraux conserveront ce comtT.
06/11/00 MF Email:
The Bellechasse-Etchemins-Montmagny-L'Islet federal riding is basically made of two provincial ridings: Bellechasse (which includes also the Etchemins area) and Montmagny-L'Islet. Bellechasse has elected a PQ candidate in the 1994 and 1998 Provincial Elections, both with a 10% margin over the PLQ. On the other hand, Montmagny-L'Islet voted for the PLQ in 1994 and 1998 (with an average 6% margin over the PQ). In addition, Gilbert Normand won this seat with a 47 votes lead over the BQ candidate during the 1997 Federal Elections. Given that the BQ seems to do better in 2000 than in 1997 (as the polls showed us so far), it is possible for them to win this riding, but with a small margin over the incumbent.
20/11/00 AL Email:alehrer@sprint.ca
With an improvement in BQ fortunes since 97 and with the soft nationalist Tory vote breaking in favour of the BQ over the Grits this riding should go BQ.
22/11/00 WJM Email:
The Bloc vote in Quebec is higher in 2000 than it was in 1997, but the Liberal growth has been higher still. The BQ won't steal this one, this time.

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Last Updated 22 November 2000

© 2000 Milton Chan
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