4 Prince Edward-Hastings
Canadian Federal Election
Riding-by-Riding Prediction
Prince Edward-Hastings

Current Prediction:
Riding Profile:

Liberal Party:
Hon. Lyle Vanclief
Canadian Alliance:
James Graham
Progressive Conservative Party:
Dennis Timbrell
New Democratic Party:
Jason Gannon

Hon. Lyle Vanclief

Previous Result:

Surrounding Ridings

Population: 92 417
Avg Household Income 44 298
Submitted Information
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04/10/00 Shane Email:
As a Minister of Agriculture in a rural area Lyle's chances are good. He will stand to do quite well in the elections as he is well liked.
18/10/00 Peter Smith Email: smithy6ca@yahoo.com
Lyle angered some people out west, but not in his own area. And overall, the press has been good since the last agriculture rerlief deal - at least indifferent...
23/10/00 Tobias Email:
The CA has a good a candidate as they'll find and I believe will place a respectable second to Lyle. Vanclief hasn't really done anything to make people to want to vote against him. The last I heard the Tories couldn't find a candidate and the NDP will probably attract their core supporters - 2,000 votes. The opposition parties would do good to push the need for change if they are to do well here.
26/10/00 D C Email:
It was my understanding that the Tories have all but nominated former Ontario Minister of Agriculture Dennis Timbrell in this riding (as they did in the 1997 election - when he finished second behind Mr. Vanclief but ahead of the reform candidate). Regardless, Vanclief won over 50% of the vote in this riding last time around and as a cabinet minister whose problems have been isolated to the Prairies that should spell another majority. Even if Vanclief slips below 50%, this is one riding that the right wing opposition parties will vote split as Mr. Timbrell and the Alliance candidate, Jim Graham, are both strong candidates. This riding is a dead zone for the NDP (although they do have pockets of support in Prince Edward County - but Belleville is a black hole for them). Oddly enough the NDP have 3 candidates running for them in the riding including a mystery candidate who has requested that his/her identity not be released until October 30th the nomination date.
30/10/00 Bluenoser Email:
Popular former Ontario Cabinet Minister Dennis Timbrell is contesting this seat for the Tories. Expect a real dogfight between Vanclief (who some see as not doing much for the area -- and Ontario farmers) and Timbrell. Expect a lot of the CA's workers to rally behind an old colleague to dump the Grits here.
30/10/00 AL Email:alehrer@sprint.ca
The Tory candidate here is former Davis-era Tory cabinent minister Dennis Timbrell. While a "star" candidate, Timbrell didn't get very far when he ran in the same riding in 1997, still, he's likely to do better than the Alliance.
31/10/00 Email:
First of all, Bluenoser doesn't know what the hell he's talking about. Nobody here knows who Dennis Timbrell is other than he ran in the last election. Oh yeah, and when he was an Ontario cabinet minister back in the 70's or 80's he was elected in a riding in Toronto (Don Valley somewhere), not here. His only claim to this riding is that he has a cottage here or something. Furthermore, the Tories will not be stealing workers from the CA in a united effort to oust Vanclief. In fact, the opposite is true. Most, if not all of the Ontario PC riding executive are now members of the Alliance and CA membership is over 800 here. The Tories had to postpone the original date of their candidate selection meeting because they didn't have anyone. They can't rent any Belleville municipal property because they haven't paid their debts owing from the last election to the city. The PC party and the local riding executive are bankrupt! AND Timbrell was probably forced to take the candidacy because he's an organizer for the Tories in Eastern Ontario. This riding is definitely not going PC, the Liberal's shift to the right will attract former PC voters to them. I predict Lyle will win again, the Alliance will make a strong showing and the PC and the NDP will fight for third. Nationally speaking, the Tories are going to lose seats and I don't think they'll win anywhere in Ontario, especially here. Bluenoser is suffering from delusions of grandeur and should be honest with himself, the PC party is politically irrelevant.
02/11/00 A.S. Email:adma@interlog.com
Vanclief *is* popular; despite Timbrell, despite C-68, he cleared the 50% mark in '97. Timbrell, who was once nearly premier, cuts a pathetic figure these days--he was barely above Reform in '97--though residual name recognition should still allow him to do better than "fight w/NDP for 3rd". If the farm'n'country living crowd can't in itself reelect Vanclief, the city of Belleville surely will...
03/11/00 Jim Email:
Count on a victory for the Liberals here. Lyle has won by large margins in the previous elections and there's no big outstanding issue present that would indicate a change in anything different this time around.
07/11/00 Email:
Being from this riding, I would have to say that the only person who stands a chance at beating Lyle is running in the municiple election for Mayor. Therefor Lyle will win. Everyone loves him in the riding, and we were ecstatic to find that our M.P. was to become a cabinet minister after the '97 election. Lyle has represented our riding well, and has kept in touch with his Belleville area roots. Therefor, I predict that he will win the riding with at least the same majority as he did before.
24/11/00 The Realist Email:
Lyle will get back in. He hasn't done anything for our riding nor is he likely too. He's a nice guy but a wet noodle when it comes to debating, legislating and thinking. With a Liberal victory iminent, people will want to keep their "Minister" in parliament. He isn't the best candidate but he is most likely to win!

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Last Updated 25 November 2000

© 2000 Milton Chan
This site is maintained by Milton Chan