Canadian Federal Election
Riding-by-Riding Prediction

Current Prediction:
Riding Profile:

Liberal Party:
Paul Macklin
Canadian Alliance:
Rick Norlock
Progressive Conservative Party:
Ralph James Zarboni
New Democratic Party:
Ben Burd
Green Party:
Tom Lawson
Canadian Action Party:
Gail Thompson

Hon. Christine Stewart

Previous Result:

Surrounding Ridings
Prince Edward-Hastings

Population: 95 132
Avg Household Income 45 306
Submitted Information
Submit Information here

23/10/00 AL Email:
Almost all those who voted Tory in this riding last election (92%) would have to switch to the CA for the party to be able to win here. The Liberals should be able to keep Northumberland since even if the Tory vote collapses entirely a number of voters would migrate to the Liberals or even the NDP before they switch to the Alliance.
25/10/00 Steven Lloyd Email:
Unless the CA can achive its goal of getting al conservitive votes, this riding will remain Liberal
02/11/00 Initial
Alakazam; another open seat loosens up the electoral aggregate. And Northumberland *has* been traditionally High Tory--George Hees once served here--and uniquely for Grits elected in 1988, Xtine Stewart couldn't clear the 50% bar in either 1993 or 1997. Reform/CA have long eyed this among their fair-sized ECentral Ont prospects; the main conundrum may be whether the apple-orchard-and-heritage-building gentility along Old Hwy 2 is really that conducive to the Alliance message. And 1997's second-place Tory is running again...
19/11/00 Pundit Email:
Bourque News had this report this morning: Is this the Hail Mary Joe Clark's been praying for ? PC Party sources are telling Bourque that in recent days internal polling shows they "have moved up 7 pts in Ontario, at the expense of the CA. The CA has NO idea what to do about it, as it was not in their plan. Seems all the help they were counting on from the Harris ground troops has fizzled and the close races are closer than anyone thinks" ... This is one riding where the PC's are making up ground big time. If the current pace of momentum continues to voting day Zarboni will win by a whisker.
22/11/00 Ian Milne
Northumberland was one of the first ridings to get fed up with the arrogant Mulroney government, going Liberal in 1988 after having been Tory every year since 1965. A lot of people are pretty tired of Jean Chretien sticking around for no reason other than his own ego - don't be surprised if this riding decides it's time for him to go just as they decided it was time for Brian to go in 88. Also, as noted above, the riding has pretty deep Tory roots. Even in the 1993 wipe-out, the PC candidate almost came second to the Liberal, and in 97 the PC (who is running again this year) beat the Reform candidate by almost 1,000 votes to place second to a sitting Liberal minister (who is not running this year). People in the riding are pretty down-to-earth, and more likely to be turned off by Stock's slick image than to be impressed by it - they would have been more comfortable with Preston. If they reject the Alliance but want a change, PC is where they will go. One more thing - in 1979 and 1980 they voted PC with Joe as Leader.
26/11/00 A.S.
Having just taken a leisurely weekend-before-election drivethru, let me say this: with the federal machine behind him, Macklin's doing satisfactorily as one might expect (though I mistook a few Royal Lepage signs for his own;-)). But to dash hopes of an Alliance open-seat takeover, within "urban centres" like Port Hope and Cobourg, it's definitely PC that's winning the non-Liberal front-lawn race, while CA's been more relegated to right-of-way/public property. (Rural and farm country may counterbalance this, as it did in '97.). It seems, too, that the surprising core of provincial support the Greens' Tom Lawson opened up in Port Hope in '99 is holding up federally...

Submit Information here
Back to Ontario
Back to Home

Last Updated 27 november 2000

© 2000 Milton Chan
This site is maintained by Milton Chan