Canadian Federal Election
Riding-by-Riding Prediction
Niagara Centre

Current Prediction:
Riding Profile:

Liberal Party:
Tony Tirabassi
Canadian Alliance:
Bernie Law
Progressive Conservative Party:
Joe Atkinson
New Democratic Party:
Mike Grimaldi
Canadian Action Party:
Tom Prue
Marxist-Leninist Party:
Ron Walker

Hon. Gib Parent

Previous Result:

Population: 99 869
Avg Household Income 47 061
Submitted Information
Submit Information here

18/10/00 AL Email:
Parent has announced his retirement from politics which suddenly makes this riding more interesting. Provincially, the NDP is strongly entrenched in this riding under standard bearer Peter Kormos. If this was still the Broadbent-era NDP we'd be talking about the likelihood of the party snatching this open riding from the Liberals. With the party's fortunes what they are though, the NDP is not the automatic contender they would have been a few years ago. But, if Kormos can be lured to make the jump to federal politics he could very well surprise everyone and steal this riding for the NDP.
18/10/00 JJG Email:
With the announcement that Gib Parent will not be running again, what was once a sure Liberal seat has turned into a real race. Rumours have it that Peter Kormos, the current NDP MPP will resign his provincial seat and run federally. However, this is only a rumour. For now this seat can either go Liberal, NDP, or Alliance.
22/10/00 Snickerdo Email:
If Peter Kormos runs in this seat federally then expect a VERY interesting race with the NDP winning in the end. He is very popular in all four cities that Niagara Centre covers and would be elected because he's him, not the party he's running for. In fact, I (personally) think if Peter Kormos had ran in this seat during the last federal election he would have beaten out Gib Parent. However, the idea of Peter Kormos running is just a rumor and should be taken with a grain of salt. Because of that I think this seat will stay Liberal even without Gib, but expect the Alliance to put up a strong fight (especially since part of this riding covers a very conservative part of St. Catharines).
25/10/00 Snickerdo Email:
The Alliance is actually predicting that Niagara Centre will be one of nine ridings that they 'walk away with' with little trouble. I find that hard to believe, unless it has something to do with little or no competition from the Tories and/or a weak Liberal candidate. This will be one to watch, but I still think ridings like St. Catharines and Erie-Lincoln have a better chance of sending Aliance MPs from Niagara to Ottawa, and their two of the better chances in all of Ontario.
02/11/00 A.S.
Things *are* changed by Gibby's retirement, even if Welland's Franco-Catholic working class base has traditionally made this the strongest federal Grit seat in Niagara. While CA'll be salivating for an open-seat pickup, they've got a glitch--their PC brethren don't hold it provincially, Kormos does. And while sufficient amounts of the provincial Kormos-Swart NDP base has usually fallen to Gibby (and could even conceivably shift Allianceward), the prospect of Kormos making a federal jump promised to turn this into an Ecstasy-fueled version of the all-this-and-Farnan-too Cambridge '97 vote. In the end, he chose to stay put--still, the incumbentless circumstances make this as borderline as the other Niagara seats...

Submit Information here
Back to Ontario
Back to Home

Last Updated 3 November 2000

© 2000 Milton Chan
This site is maintained by Milton Chan