Canadian Federal Election
Riding-by-Riding Prediction

Current Prediction:
Riding Profile:

Liberal Party:
Hon David Anderson
Canadian Alliance:
Bruce Hallsor
Progressive Conservative Party:
Brian Burchill
New Democratic Party:
David Turner
Marijuana Party:
Chuck Beyer
Lorenzo Bouchard
Natural Law Party:
Cal Danyluk
Mary Moreau
Communist Party:
Scott Rushton
Green Party:
Joan Russow

Hon David Anderson

Previous Result:

Surrounding Ridings:

Avg Household Income
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Submitted Information
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12/10/00 Mike Parkes Email:
David Anderson is polling badly here due to a perception that he is Ottawas representative to Victoria and not the other way around. But by election time he will win again, but by a substantially reduced plurality.
16/10/00 Blake Robert Email:
This is another riding that's going to send a minister packing. Just like in Edmonton West, a good CA candidate combined with an unpopular MP will give Victoria to the Alliance.
16/10/00 JWH Email:
Bruce Hallsor the CA candidate will win over David Anderson. Bruce knows how to run a campaign, is an excelent speaker, and knows the riding of Victoria. Even with a not-so-stellar candidate in the last election, the Reform Party came within a couple of thousand votes of toppling David Anderson who won only 34.8% of the vote. Hallsor will be able to garner votes from former Progressive Conservatives, "Paul Martin" Liberals, and gain the core Reform vote and then some. David Anderson's reign is about to come to an abrupt end.
19/10/00 M. A. Price Email:
Until the Canadian Alliance/Reform can prove that it can win in a non-Calgary/Edmonton urban riding, I don't see an Alliance breakthrough here. Anderson has not necessarily been the best representative, but he will be re-elected because he is a senior cabinet minister and will have as much of the Liberal election machine on his side as he wishes.
21/10/00 Daniel Email:
The CA has a great candidate, and Anderson didn't win by much last time around.
24/10/00 Chris Delanoy
I lay awake at night hoping that the Alliance will eke out just a few thousand more votes and topple the loathesome David Anderson. It's well known that Anderson is Prime Minister Paul Martin's point-man in BC, and Chretien might therefore just as well order the Liberal machine to cease operating on his behalf. And who knows - maybe Keith Martin will have some coat-tails now that he's an alleged "star" of sorts in the area.
24/10/00 J Smith Email:
The Greens are running their leader here. She should make considerable gains in this riding, as Anderson is Environment Minister. The Greens are gaining support throughout the province, and this seat represents the only hope they have of winning a seat. Green Party Steal.
29/10/00 J Email:
Anderson faces an uphill battle for re-election this time. He barely won last time (34% of the vote). Hallsor is not a one-issue candidate like Arla Taylor was (pro-lifer). This combined with voter anger at Liberal arrogance and scandal, and trying to buy voters with their own money depress Liberal support in Victoria. Tories here also in disarray. This could help the Hallsor further.
29/10/00 A.S.
Anderson's a wily bullet-dodger, and he's got more urban NDP yuppies than the Alliance has PC detritus to sponge up from '97. No doubt it'll be difficult--especially if Joan Russow is to David Anderson what Ralph Nader's to Al Gore...
31/10/00 George Pringle
Bruce has this one wrapped up. No one's commented that the ND candidate is David Turner the former mayor and UVic Social Work Prof who will be able to take votes from Anderson's left support while Bruce takes votes from the right.
03/11/00 j Email:
Anderson is my MP, and from the way things look around the riding, Anderson is in big trouble. The lawn signs are starting to come out, but Hallsor (CA candidate) has a 2-to-1 advantage in the 'sign war'. Furthermore, the Ipsos-Reid poll put CA support at 52% province-wide. IF that holds until election day, the CA will sweep everything but a handful of seats (Vanc. East, Burnaby-Douglas, Vanc. Centre, Vanc. Kingsway and Vanc. South-Burnaby). Seeing as Anderson squeaked-by last time with 34% on lower province-wide Reform total (43% province-wide in 1997), Anderson will likely be defeated this time. Lastly, Hallsor is a much stronger candidate than the '97 Reform candidate.
06/11/00 M.A. Price Email:
"j" talks about the "sign war" in an earlier post. I found his interpretation of the number of signs interesting. Today at lunch I walked around the James Bay area of the Victoria riding (and walked back around the downtown core). I only saw 2 lawn signs (both for Anderson). There was not a hint of Hallsor's (the Alliance) campaign anywhere. I guess "j" must have been looking in the Oak Bay/Uplands area of the riding if the number of Alliance signs are 2-1 over the Liberal signs. Later in the week I will walk through Fairfield and report back about the signs there. I stand by my earlier post. That is, until the Alliance can show Canadians that it can win in a non-Calgary downtown riding, it will not win Victoria. I acknowledge that Bruce Hallsor is the strongest Alliance (Reform) candidate we have seen in Victoria, but the stark absence of NDP signs (and the weakness of the NDP candidate, David Turner), and the possibility of much of the NDP vote going Liberal will return David Anderson to Ottawa.
08/11/00 James T. Chlup
Alliance should be able to defeat this ineffectual Liberal MP, who only has a 2,700 majority.
09/11/00 M.A. Price
As I said I would, I walked through parts of the Fairfield area of the riding yesterday (Linden, Fairfield, Harbinger streets, and the Cook Street Village). I saw 6 signs in all, 4 for the Liberals and 2 for the NDP. Again, no real evidence that people are supporting the Alliance in this part of the riding. Of course, observing signs is about as far from being scientific about voting intentions as one can go, but it is still somewhat of a useful, if not fun, indicator. Next week, Fernwood.
12/11/00 randy gorman
think about it for a minute,david anderson is an influential cabinet minister,do you honestly believe bruce hallsor and alliance have any real chance of knocking off this cabinet heavy-weight. the alliance will make some inroads, but when it,s all said and done the inexperienced mr.hallsor will have to try for election again in the future. prediction mr.anderson's going back to ottawa.
14/11/00 Sandy Berger Email:
Three things make me think that David Anderson will win what is certain to be a tight contest:
1) Anderson speaks Mandarin Chinese fluently, helping him to lock up the East Asian vote.
2) His war with Glen Clark over Salmon was high-profile gold in a province where Glen Clark is the devil.
3) The Liberal emphasis on fighting against two-tier health care will help steer elderly voters to the Liberal camp.
15/11/00 M.A. Price
In driving through parts of Oak Bay, the Alliance does appear to have about a 2-1 lead over Anderson in the sign war, which seems to parallel what "j" was saying. This is not too surprising, in that Oak Bay is the wealthiest part of the riding. The Liberals are definitely sliding, but I still think Anderson will hold the seat - based primarily on many former NDP votes going Liberal. This is going to be a very tight race. With respect to the last commentator, Anderson does speak Mandarin. However, the East Asian vote in Victoria is miniscule, especially when compared with Vancouver, and will not be a factor.
15/11/00 Christopher J. Currie
David Anderson's chances of being re-elected have probably improved in the light of the American Presidential race. Some Green sympathizers who were leaning towards Russow might begin to have second thoughts now, it being fairly obvious that Al Gore would have won the Presidency were it not for Ralph Nader. Admittedly, Canadian politics doesn't always mirror the American scene ... but Canadians read and watch American news programs, and some of the anger and resentment which centre/left Americans feel towards Nader is bound to impact the race here. It may only be a handful of votes, but that could be enough to make the difference.
16/11/00 AL
The Compas poll released today (Nov 16) shows that Liberal support in BC has taken a nosedive from 40% at the beginning of the campaign to 23% now. Anderson will be one of the casualties.
17/11/00 M.A. Price
I said I would take a walk through the Fernwood area to see which way the political winds (campaign signs) are blowing, so I did. I saw 9 signs (5 Liberal, 3 NDP, and 1 for Joan Russow of the Greens). As expected in this area of the riding, the Canadian Alliance does not have a presence whatsoever. So, in my travels throughout the riding over the past 2 weeks, the Alliance's only "strong" presence seems to be in and around Oak Bay. As well, the NDP appears to be holding up quite well in this riding, despite its lacklustre performance nationally. Will indeed be close, but I still predict a Liberal (Anderson) hold, especially if we factor in the latest Compass poll, which actually shows the Liberals AHEAD of the CA in BC. Personally, I don't think the Libs are AHEAD, but I do think Anderson will keep his seat.
19/11/00 larry skoog Email:
Anderson should survive again- NDp vote will probably go down and why waste vote of Green party
20/11/00 db Email:
Anderson will win in Victoria. He been an effective MP and has the support of the community, demonstrated by Mayor Lowe's endoresment last week.
21/11/00 R.D. Email:
Toronto-based Environment Voters recently donated $15,000 to the NDP candidate in this riding for 19 60-second television ads. (Globe and Mail, 11/21/00) This despite the fact that Green Party leader Joan Russow is also running in this riding. Maybe they know something we don't. I'll call a close NDP victory here, if they pick up the anti-Anderson environmentalist vote.
24/11/00 BJ Email:
I know this will be a close race, but in the end David Anderson will prevail. Mr. Anderson has done a tremendous job presenting British Columbia in Ottawa. He was a terrific Fisheries Minister and is a great Environment Minister. The people of Victoria will be making a big mistake if they elect Mr. Hallor as there MP.
26/11/00 Steven H. Email:
The NDP has a strong candidate in former mayor David Turner, who (having gotten out of politics before the scandal-plagued NDP provincial government) isn't tarred with many of the negatives that the NDP faces in this province. Turner will be able to hold on to the majority of the core NDP vote and the strategic voting will be light due to people anticipating a Liberal win nationally. The NDP vote might go down a smidge compared to 1997 but it's not going to crash and burn. Anderson, meanwhile, is facing a strong candidate in Bruce Hallsor, who doesn't have the baggage of the 1997 Reform candidate (who was an extremist, on-issue candidate with skeletons in her closet). Anderson's nightmare has come true: strong NDP candidate to mitigate strategic voting combined with with a strong Alliance candidate means that Anderson will go down to defeat, but it will be close.

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Last Updated 27 November 2000

© 2000 Milton Chan
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