1999 Ontario Provincial Election
Riding-by-Riding Prediction
Scarborough East

Current Prediction:
Riding Profile:

Candidates:
Liberal Party:
Peter Vanderyagt
Progressive Conservative Party:
Steve Gilchrist MPP
New Democratic Party:
Terry Maley
Libertarian Party:
Sam Apelbaum
Family Coalition Party:
Catherine Fox
Natural Law Party:
Loucas Cafe
Independent:
Heath Thomas

Incumbent (old riding composition):
Scarborough East (94%):
Steve Gilchrist
Scarborough Ellesmere (11%):
Marilyn Mushinski
Scarborough North (10%):
Alvin Curling

Member of Parliament:
John McKay

Surrounding Ridings:
Pickering-Ajax-Uxbridge
Scarborough Centre
Scarborough-Rouge River
Scarborough Southwest

Misc:
Population: 103 134
Avg Household Income 59 252
Language (Home)
English 85 850
Chinese 2 500
Submitted Information
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Too Close
03/10/99 I.MacFarlane Email:
The tory Gilchrist could easily become the target for the anti-megacity forces for the role he played esspecially since his boss Al Leach is not running this time around. This leaves things open for the liberal candidate to win with the other main issues being health and education.
03/13/99 mike Email: mktolpud@webgate.net
Gilchrist hasn't a hope. Folks have been waiting three years to give this guy the pink slip.
03/15/99 Email: mktolpud@webgate.net
A safe Tory seat in all but a landslide. Gilchrest won the seat from an incumbant with over 55% of the vote in 1995. He's also an experienced party organizer and you know he'll run a strong campaign. With David Johnson, Janet Ecker and Sid Ryan all running in nearby ridings, I don't Gilchrest becoming much of a target.
Too Close
03/18/99 A.S. Email: adma@interlog.com
It may ostensibly be a "safe" seat, but I doubt that'll faze the opposition, and the reason is simple--to opponents, Steve Gilchrist is the walking, talking embodiment of Toronto PCism at its ugliest and most arrogantly, bullyingly antagonistic. He is a creep, slime, scum, John Sewell's #1 bete noire, and he even looks like Keifer Sutherland! Those screaming meemie activist types will try their darndest to tan Steve Gilchrist's hide, short of trussing him and his mistress up in the town square;-) Will it work? It could--the voters hereabouts haven't been averse to electing non-Tories in the past. (That was a pretty darn big mandate Liberal Ed Fulton earned in '87...when the PCs were at third and barely earned back their deposit...yum) But first, we have to get a handle on what kind of site-specific game plan the opposition has up its sleeve for Scarborough East...
04/18/99 L.O. Email: petercashin@yahoo.com
Gilchrist has the upper hand here and will probably be able to hang onto it. There's a strong number who are upset by anti-megacity, but that issue may not be enough to break his popularity.
05/10/99 Globe and Mail Email:
Toronto 'tough country' for Conservatives by John Barber
In fact, (former Liberal MPP Frank) Faubert said, the one Scarborough Tory with the best chance of retaining his seat is Steve Gilchrest, running in Scarborough East..."
05/17/99 Toronto Star Email:
Tory candidate's pitbull personality an issue by Catherine Dunphy
05/19/99 Email:
Vanderyast and Maley both represent high risk challenges to a candidate who is genuinely despised in this riding. Over the past week or so the fight seems to have consolidated with Vanderyast now holding the flag. Of all the PC candidates in Ontario who could or might not win, Gilchrist's arrogant style and habit of saying the wrong things at the wrong time will get him in big trouble here. Local gossip has it that Gilchrist almost got into a punch up with a man and his wife on their own door step. What a disgrace!
06/01/99 michael Ensley Email: mensley@rocketmail.com
The PC's will be returned here due to the weakness of the anti-Harris forces and the general trend to the government
06/01/99 HJH Email:
Given the strength that the PCs are showing in 416 and 905, this should be a Tory hold. Note to the webmaster: for what it's worth - and it (unfortunately) ain't worth much - Sam A. is the Libertarian Party leader, and should be ID'd as such, in accordance with your usual practice.
06/02/99 Bob Email:
Gilcrest got creamed at the West Rouge Centre on Monday night. The biggest turn out of all the associations and Gilcrest could not leave the sniping alone. He blamed it on the teachers but looking around the people that were there were people that lived there. In 1995 these were Gilcrest best polls I don't think Gilcrest will pull it off this time. Look for just about all the votes of the NDP going Liberal. The people don't like Gilcrest or being talked down to.

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Last Updated 2nd June 1999

© 1999 Milton Chan, University of Waterloo
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