1999 Ontario Provincial Election
Riding-by-Riding Prediction
Nickel Belt

Current Prediction:
Riding Profile:

Candidates:
Liberal Party:
Ron Dupuis
Progressive Conservative Party:
Gerry Courtemanche
New Democratic Party:
Shelley Martel

Incumbent (old riding composition):
Nickel Belt (86%):
Blain Morin
Sudbury East (67%):
Shelley Martel

Member of Parliament:
Ray Bonin

Surrounding Ridings:
Algoma-Manitoulin
Timiskaming-Cochrane
Timmins-James Bay

Misc:
Population: 78 439
Avg Household Income 50 306
Language (Home)
English 56 060
French 19 425
Submitted Information
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02/26/99 Email:
Blain Morin has announced that he's not running for re-election which means that Shelly Martel will be the likely NDP candidate in this riding. If so she should win, the Martel name goes a long way in Nickel Belt.
03/13/99 Michael Bellmore Email:
In the last federal election, Raymond Bonin was re-elected as the Liberal M.P.-he fought off an organized effort to defeat him, the runner up was Elie Martel former M.P.P. and father of Shelley. Ray fought the office of Howard Hampton, Shelley Martel, former Nickel Belt M.P.P. Floyd Laughren, the OFAH, organized labour and the list goes on. The demographics in the riding have changed and that makes this an interesting race. The liberals will select City of Valley East Councillor Ron Dupuis, a well known and respected individual with a francophone background (this counts for alot in this riding). The conservatives have Gerry Courtemanche a former Nickel Belt federal and Sudbury East (now nickel belt) provincial Liberal riding association executive member, angry at the federal liberals over gun control, a member of the OFAH executive, yet he is the candidate for a party that banned the bear hunt(what kind of a naturalist is he. There is also wide speculation of a disgruntled Nickel Belt NDP riding association membership that is angry that Mr. Morin may have been squeezed out of the running in favor of Howard Hamptons wife Shelley Martel. If they vote they may vote Liberal as a protest as the Liberal Party is closer in philosophy than the tories. Keep your eyes on this historical race!
03/15/99 Email:
I wouldn't count Gerry Courtemange out. People were making the same predictions about this riding in the recent by-election; the NDP would be the big winner and the Liberal a close second. The PC's would come in a distant third. Courtemange surprised every one by coming in a close second in traditional NDP territory. Watch for the PC's to surprise every one again in Nickel Belt and walk away with a seat!!
03/16/99 A. Email:
This one will be a clear win for Shelley Martel. Even at 14% in the polls, the NDP managed to win an impressive by-election victory in the former Nickel Belt riding, a contest in which the Liberals came third. Add that to Martel's solid Sudbury East base, and you have the makings of a safe NDP seat.
04/08/99 A.S. Email: adma@interlog.com
I agree that the byelection means Courtemanche should be monitored, but a PC win still seems farfetched. Nor is this isn't the first time the Liberals have tried their luck with a high-profile francophone--and yet the provincial NDP lock's still unbroken. Remember that the veritable encyclopedia illustration of Rae cabinet pratfalls couldn't unseat Shelley Martel in '95. All the less likely now--or rather, a lot more now hinges upon the vicissitudes of her partner in marriage and politics. If the provincial New Democrats lose Nickel Belt, they might as well give up and die...
05/18/99 Sudbury Star Email: adma@interlog.com
Poll has Martel ahead in riding by Rob O'Flanagan
Nickel Belt Conservatives and Liberals were playing down the results of an Oracle Research poll released Monday.
The poll indicated that among decided voters, NDP candidate Shelley Martel has a comfortable lead over Liberal Ron Dupuis and Conservative Gerry Courtemanche.
"The results show that Martel has a good, broad base of support in the riding," said Paul Seccaspina, president of Oracle.
"Martelís name recognition also went a long way," he said.
The poll found that 42 per cent of decided voters surveyed said they intend to vote for Martel. Another 30 per cent said they would vote for Dupuis, and 28 per cent favoured Courtemanche.
A total of 15 per cent of those surveyed were undecided. The poll has a margin of error of 5.2 per cent, 19 out of 20 times.
05/29/99 lrs Email:
with NDP gaining in north- why should not the NDP win here

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Last Updated 30th May 1999

© 1999 Milton Chan, University of Waterloo
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